The Day They Nearly Closed Equities

By Nick Lawson, Executive Chair and Founder, Ocean Wall Ltd

On 9 March 2009, I was standing on the Deutsche dealing floor in London when one of the most senior people in fixed income walked over to my desk. He didn't bother with small talk. By this time tomorrow, he told me, we would have to look at closing the equities business.

He was wrong. That evening the S&P 500 closed at 676, and it has never been that low since. Nobody on that floor knew it. Panic never announces its own bottom.

Taylor Wimpey tells the story better than any index. In 2007, the shares traded at around £4.50. By early 2009, they were at 6p, a fall of 98%. The market was pricing a housebuilder as though Britain had stopped building houses. The land was still there. The demand for homes was still there. What had vanished was anyone willing to hold the paper. Those who bought at 6p went on to make more than thirty times their money as the shares climbed back towards £2.

That is the lesson I took from that floor and have carried ever since. The best position in markets is to face distressed sellers of assets that are not themselves distressed. In 2009 the sellers were banks shrinking their balance sheets, funds meeting redemptions and investors who could no longer bear to look. Their need to sell had nothing to do with what the assets were worth.

I see the same pattern in nuclear today. The last fortnight has been brutal. The Global X Uranium ETF (URA) has fallen 42% from its 28 January peak, from $61.81 to $36.12, the deepest drawdown in our five year dataset. Since 2021 URA has suffered four previous drawdowns of more than 20%. Only one went beyond 40%, from November 2021 to July 2022. After that low, URA rallied 32% within two months and regained its prior peak within 18 months, up 74% from the trough.

Pre revenue names have fallen furthest, for two reasons. The first is rates. These are long duration assets whose value lies in cash flows years away, and rising real yields shrink what those cash flows are worth today. Over five years yields show no lasting link with URA, yet in 2026 the 60 day correlation has reached about minus 0.5, the strongest of the period. The second is risk appetite. URA's daily correlation with the Magnificent 7 is 0.45, so big tech explains about a fifth of its moves. Nuclear trades as part of the AI power theme, and it has sold off with it.

There is a third reason, and it rhymes with 2009. This rally was built by a new breed of investor. Finance has been gamified, put on a phone and turned into entertainment, with conviction sourced from Substack, StockTwits and X rather than from balance sheets.

The numbers are startling. Retail flows now account for roughly 20% of US equity volumes, and as much as 55% to 65% of daily turnover in South Korea and China. Seven in ten retail investors are under 45. In 2015 just 6% of 25 year olds held an investment account; by 2024 it was 37%. US ETFs took a record $1.5 trillion of net inflows in 2025, and here in Britain retail equity and ETF flows reached £228 billion. This is a younger, less wealthy cohort with thin cushions against loss, and it has learned to borrow. Margin accounts, options and leveraged ETFs are now standard kit on the trading apps.

Now the brokers are pulling the ladder away. Last week one of Europe's largest retail trading platforms asked for 110% collateral on positions. At that level margin is no longer leverage at all. It is a demand for more than the position itself is worth.

When the cost of carrying a position exceeds the position, holders don't sell because they have changed their minds. They sell because they have no choice. That is exactly what unravelled in 2008 and 2009. The leverage went first, and prices followed, whatever sat underneath.

None of these reasons says anything about reactors, fuel or enrichment. Demand for clean baseload power has not changed in a fortnight.

Which brings me to ASP Isotopes and Fermi America. Both now trade below the cash on their balance sheets, which means the market is valuing the businesses themselves at nothing. That isn't a verdict on isotope enrichment or power for data centres. It is the sound of margin calls, momentum funds and macro traders crowding towards the same exit.

I have heard that sound before. On 9 March 2009 it told me the equities business would be shut by the following day. It turned out to be the best buying opportunity of a generation.

Disclosure: Ocean Wall is authorised and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority, FRN 913321. 

Author Bio: Nick Lawson is a financier and entrepreneur with over 30 years at the sharp end of global equity markets. At Deutsche Bank in London, he rose to Managing Director, building the No.1 rated Special Situations and Merger Arbitrage desk before becoming Global Head of Macro and Synthetic Equity, overseeing complex strategies across international markets.